2007 NFC South Preview: Atlanta Falcons

Walter Anaruk - 2007-08-12 15:32:08

With star quarterback Michael Vick likely gone for good, Falcons Head Coach Bobby Petrino must figure out what to do on offense. That is the sentiment surrounding the Atlanta Falcons. “Rhett! Whatever shall we do?”

If you’re Bobby Petrino, you turn your attention to Joey Harrington. You focus on your running game. You try to figure out the solutions to real problems. For example, if John Abraham goes down again, who will fill the void with Patrick Kerney off to Seattle? Who can play defensive tackle besides Grady Jackson? Is there a receiver besides Joe Horn on this roster that Harrington can rely on?

Quarterbacks: With Michael Vick’s future uncertain, Petrino has anointed free agent acquisition Joey Harrington as the starter. Harrington has not found success to justify his lofty third-overall draft status. But he suffered most of his career at one of the NFL’s worst franchises. He was inconsistent in Miami as well. But he was on the roster in Miami for less than a year.

Harrington’s main problems are mental. He gets rattled when the pass rush is in his face. After spending four seasons getting shell-shocked in Detroit who can blame him? Ask David Carr. He isn’t decisive. Harrington often holds the ball, unsure of how long to let a play develop before delivering the football. That can easily be tied to years in Detroit throwing to receivers who constantly loafed and freelanced out of their routes throughout games.

Bobby Petrino once said that any quarterback could play in his system. He said he expected Vick to complete 65% of his passes. If he could be so bold about Vick, a running quarterback, why not about Harrington, a drop back passer? Petrino will give Harrington the benefit of the doubt. He doesn’t have much of a choice. I think it will pay off.
Fantasy Impact: Harrington is an awful fantasy play at this point. He may have upside but unless you’re taking a 12th-round flier on the kid, you need to lay off the cough syrup. D.J. Shockley is athletic and tough. But in the unlikely event that Harrington is bad enough to warrant a Shockley start, he’s an even worse play. Stay away. Far away.

Running Backs: Warrick Dunn was the starter until he injured his back in training camp. He is only supposed to miss the preseason and he’s already running sprints in practice again. But the missed practice time in Petrino’s new offense will probably cost him opening day starting duties.

However, Dunn is a smart veteran player who probably won’t take long to catch up on what little he misses. So take the injury with a grain of salt.

Dunn’s time away will most likely mean that backup running back Jerious Norwood will enter the season as the starter regardless of Dunn’s medical status. Norwood was exceptionally productive in his rookie season. Norwood is almost 25 pounds heavier than Dunn with home-run speed. Norwood amassed 633 yards and 2 touchdowns in 99 carries last season for a whopping 6.4 yards per carry on average. Norwood is not afraid to lower his shoulder and pound on defenses. He runs hard between the tackles. While he is a bit smaller than the bruisers Petrino likes to use in his offense, Norwood’s style should compensate for his stature.

Even if he’s not the starter, Warrick Dunn will contribute early this season. Even if he never supplants Norwood atop the depth chart, Dunn will produce unless he rushes back from surgery too soon.
Fantast Impact: Both Falcons running back make an excellent second or flex running back for your roster. Norwood’s name is rising on fantasy draft boards because of Dunn’s injury. If you can get Dunn on the cheap, the pick will pay huge dividends on your depth chart late in the season.

Wide Receivers: Right now, the Falcons are saying “Thank you Marques Colston.” Colston’s dazzling rookie in New Orleans coupled with a deep and talented arsenal of young talent at the receiver position led the Saints to release Joe Horn.

Without having to lose something in a trade, the Falcons snapped Horn up to instantly improve a struggling receiver corps. Horn is a vocal leader. And while he no longer has elite speed, he is still a threat to get deep and make plays.

Additionally, Horn is a strong and willing mentor. With veteran Brian Finneran out for a second consecutive season on injured reserve, Horn provides the young receivers in Atlanta with a mentor.

First round draft picks Roddy White and Michael Jenkins have excellent speed but neither has shown consistency running routes or catching the ball. Since that is 90% of a wide receiver’s job, Horn’s presence should give them a shining example to follow much as it did for the youngsters in New Orleans.
Fantasy Impact: Not much. See Roddy White, Michael Jenkins above. See Quarterback section.

Tight Ends: Alge Crumpler has been the staple of the Atlanta passing attack. Crumpler was Michael Vick’s favorite target and until the arrival of Horn, was the only reliable set of hands outside of the backfield. But Crumpler is on a set of unsteady knees. Those knees are in further jeopardy because of the additional weight Crumpler looks like he’s carrying this year.

It remains to be seen how much his weight will affect his quickness. Shedding the weight will make him less of an injury risk as well. There is little to no reliable depth behind Crumpler.
Fantasy Impact: Until this season, Crumpler was a top five tight end behind Gonzo, Gates, Shockey, and Heap. No more. Crumpler is a risk/reward pick at best. Probably shouldn’t rely on Crumpler for your TE start this year.

Offensive Line: The Falcons offensive line has been solid for the past few years. While little has changed from a personnel standpoint, the offensive line may be suspect this season.

The Falcons’ zone blocking system, made famous in Denver, relies on the smaller more agile player. Bobby Petrino prefers a heads-up physical style in his scheme that normally requires more of the road grader types.

Rookie offensive tackle Justin Blalock fits that mold at 6’4”, 329 pounds. He’s a mauler and fits perfectly. The biggest question seems to be whether he will compete at tackle or guard. Most of the rest are holdovers from the previous scheme and will need to play bigger than they are.

Left tackle Wayne Gandy is a tough and experienced veteran who has played in this type of system before so he should be okay. Guard Kynan Forney should find himself a full time starter since he is the strongest player on the line.

Center Todd McClure and right tackle Todd Weiner are very good players in the zone blocking scheme but may lack the size to execute in Petrino’s offense.

Defensive Line: The Falcon’s look great at the top of the depth chart along the defensive line but depth is a very real and immediate concern.

The departure of defensive end Patrick Kerney resulted in a serious hole in Atlanta’s depth and leadership. The starting ends are expected to be John Abraham and rookie Jamaal Anderson.

Anderson is big and has elite speed. But as with most athletic edge rushers, he sometimes struggles against the run. His speed can become a liability when better tackles use his upfield burst to push him out of play.

John Abraham is a beast when healthy. But Abraham is NEVER healthy. Abraham totaled four games last season. And if he goes down again, there is no real depth behind Abraham. Atlanta would be left with a rookie and a rotation of role-players.

Defensive Tackles Grady Jackson and Rod Coleman are formidable. But Jackson’s size causes him to wear down quickly. Coleman is coming back from a turf toe injury from last season and a ruptured thigh muscle suffered during the spring. Coleman will probably be limited if not completely out of the first few games of the regular season. Jonothan Babineaux provides a solid back up but depth behind him is also a concern.

Linebackers: Defensive leader Keith Brooking will be moved to middle linebacker. Ed Hartwell never became the presence in the middle that the Falcons hoped since he spent both seasons since arriving in Atlanta on injured reserve.

The weakside position is in flux. Demorrio Williams was slated to start but a torn pectoral suffered in the spring will keep him out of early games. The Falcons could allow Brooking to return to the weakside where he is an absolute beast but they need his leadership in the middle. Stephen Nicholas will likely man the weakside linebacker spot until Williams returns. However, if the fourth round pick struggles, expect to see Jordan Beck in the middle with Brooking back at weakside.

Michael Boley ably mans the strong side. He is more athletic than most strong side backers. He is rarely out of position and has such a great burst that he can also be used as an edge rushing defensive end.

Secondary: Strong safety Lawyer Milloy is the veteran leader of this unit but cornerback DeAngelo Hall is the star. While Hall has the tools, he still makes some mental errors against play fakes and crafty route runners. Cornerback Jimmy Wiliams will move to free safety where he has the speed to be a centerfielder. This year’s second round pick Chris Houston will get a shot at starting opposite Hall at right corner.

The Falcons are proceeding as if Mike Vick never existed. Given the three federal indictments against him and superseding indictments to follow, that is probably a good idea. Petrino is not as up against the wall without Vick as many believe. Vick’s style of play clashes mightily with Petrino’s system.

The real roadblock for the Falcons is that they team has been in a steady decline. While the Buccaneers and the Panthers are rebuilding parts of their teams as well, The New Orleans Saints are rolling and each team in the NFC South has to play them twice.

Petrino and the Falcons will have some moments and should get stronger. But they are in a competitive division. Not a great time for such a drastic makeover. Even if it isn’t the disaster it looks like on the surface.

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